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Prediction for CME (2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-16T12:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27320/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is C7.5 class flare starting at 2023-10-16T10:31Z and associated eruption. The flare can be best seen in SDO AIA 131/193, opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and dimming and post eruptive loops are also seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival Signature: Characterized by a weak amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 10nT at 2023-10-20T12:38Z. Subsequent increases were observed in density and temperature. This was followed by a rotation in magnetic field components during which an extended period of negative Bz was observed from around 2023-10-20T17:30Z to 2023-10-21T08:00Z. This arrival signature may be reflective of a weak arrival/glancing blow from CME: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T07:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Oct 17 1236 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31017
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Oct 2023, 1235UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Oct 2023  10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 001 
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Oct 2023  10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 010 
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2023  10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 007

...

Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to the east was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 11:48 UTC. This was associated with a long duration C7.5 flare on October 16, peaking at 10:51 UTC. The CME appears to mostly be directed to the east but a wider shock is visible. A glancing blow at Earth is possible on October 20. ...

Lead Time: 66.65 hour(s)
Difference: 6.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-10-17T12:51Z

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